Why is it that people make such a big deal out of the New Year? As we approach, later on today to be specific, the year 2010, we also see another milestone that people get excited about, the end of decade, but not just any decade, the one that began the 21st century.

I can tell you with absolute certainty that if there are people that put weight on this event and see it as the foundation laying for the next millennium; we are in for one hell of a thousand years.

The superstitions and notions that many have are quite ridiculous, as when tomorrow rolls around, January 1, 2010, nothing will be different except the date.

The future that was set for us and our grandchildren is bleak based on the stimulus packages that “saved” the world from the brink of another depression, which will in fact drive the world into worse.

These are my beliefs, thoughts from someone who was a student of history and political science; thoughts that prompt me to recall the fiasco of the 1930’s New Deal in the US.

President Roosevelt, the champion of the fight against the Great Depression, took a page from Rahm Emanuel’s book 80 years into the future by declaring “you never waste a crisis to effect social change.”

That is what he did, Roosevelt that is, took the crash and the ensuing recession that featured high unemployment rates and bank failures and created a horde of social programs aimed at helping the poor manage day-to-day.

However, the bad times kept rolling on throughout the thirties, and the depression did not end until 10 years later when the war machine was grinding.

You see, this game has been played over and again, and as humans who have catapulted our species to levels of understanding and knowledge not fathomed a mere few hundred years ago, we seem to be ignorant of our past.

The depression ended in the 1940’s not as a result of welfare or social security or Medicaid, it ended when the country put millions to work building the equipment needed to defeat imperialist Japan and Nazi Germany.

Where I come from, the thought on charity is simple and clear; you can give someone food so that they can eat, you can give someone clothes so that they can be warm, you can give someone shelter so that may be dry, but give someone a job and you have enabled them to give themselves all that they need.

The echoes of the Depression era are being heard today, as the US Congress, the British Parliament and to a lesser extent, Japan are working hard to solve the financial meltdown by treating the wounded, not by strengthening their own forces.

How much money will it take to feed or clothe or medically insure a country? And if everyone in that country is receiving these services, as mandated by the government, who is paying the taxes that are needed to support these programs? Carl Marx had the idea, let the masses work as a collective – where everyone is equal – and everyone receives the fair share of their labor. But this experiment failed. Why doesn’t anyone remember?

As the last holdout of true capitalism, the US was a force amongst the nations. After World Wars one and two, the US became a pillar of strength in the world, an entity to which many countries owed their gratitude.

Now it is the US that is indebted to the world – literally, as they spend Trillions of Dollars padding the coffers of political contributors and expanding social benefits.

Had the money they borrowed to ease the nation through the crisis to truly create jobs, by giving small businesses subsidies and incentives to hire – by freeing up funds to prevent large corporations from implementing mass layoffs, by keeping the public working, the future would not be as dark.

And so, as we look toward 2010 we see a US Dollar that is rapidly losing value; we see a United States losing credibility just as quickly; and we see a world that is on the brink of returning to the dark days of the Bunny-Hop and the Charleston.

So as you prepare for the New Year, enjoy the celebrations and fireworks and crystal balls dropping in Times Square. Enjoy the hope that life will ease as the hands of time continue to tick – and forget how good it has been before the woes of the past year and a half.

One of my life mentors, a man by the name of Robert Zimmerman used to say “The times, they are a changin’” – Bobby boy , oh what a prophet you have turned out to be.

Happy New Year everyone.

I wonder if the US truly believes that implementing a national policy of uncontrollable spending in the name of social reform is going to help their plight.

With the US deficit skyrocketing and their investors, i.e. the rest of the world, balking at the level to which the US is spending their money, the arrogance they are displaying is unconscionable. With a last minute vote before the Christmas holiday, the ruling party in Washington, the Democratic Senate, passed a sweeping health care reform to fulfill President Obama’s vision of a health care entitlement for every citizen. The plan, expected to cost over one Trillion Dollars, is heavily flawed and will actually penalize Americans for not buying insurance. Now, I am not going to get into the finite details – outlined in the two thousand page document – but rather must focus on the cost.

In my quest to guide Forex traders towards responsible investments, I have spent the past year bringing the oxymoronic double-talk of many of the world’s leaders to the forefront. To me, the necessity of free and democratic governments to address their economic issues far outweighs the need they feel they have to make their citizens lives easier. The US economy was based on the John Locke brand of economics which states that every person has the right to “life, liberty and the pursuit of property.” It is the last one, property, that tells it all – it is the capitalistic creed – let the government protect its citizens, let the government manage international affairs of their nation, but let the citizens strive for economic excellence on their own.

Now, don’t mistake my fervent dialogue for lack of sympathy for those that cannot afford to see a doctor or buy medicine when they are ill, I have been there myself and I know it can be a struggle. I also know that the American system is designed to provide the best of care to those who can afford to pay for it, and I know that many of the uninsured are children as well as hard working middle class people who just simply cannot afford the high prices of insurance, again I have had to make that choice myself. But there are two points here that are essential to this argument.

The first is that as a result of the high costs, the US has become a global leader in health care innovation – enabling once painful procedures to be performed with minimal invasion, enabling once incurable diseases to be eradicated and enabling the most advanced medical technology to be developed. Take away the current system and you are left with nothing more than a typical socialized medical system that is there to serve the patients without the financial ability to innovate. Read about some of the horror stories of British and Canadian citizens and you will understand what I mean. With ten percent of the US population in need of coverage, there has to be a better way than increasing the national debt exponentially.

The second is that this is certainly not the time to champion such a project. With a twelve Trillion Dollar debt, many in Washington might think another Trillion is not that bad – but our creditors in China, Russia, India and Brazil have other opinions on the issue and have made no bones (no pun intended) about voicing it. This issue could have been resolved easily, at least on a temporary basis, by adding the 30 Million uninsured to the Medicare rosters until the economic woes the US is facing have subsided. Yes, this would have added to the debt, but far less than 1 Trillion – and it would have eliminated all of the additional spending that is included in the bill which is unrelated to health care reform.

What the Health Care Bill shows the world is that the US Congress runs like an Arabic Shuk (market) – in which if you want something from someone (in this case a vote of yes), you give something in return. Bartering with the US deficit and national debt is a dangerous thing; it is made worse when you do so at the expense of your great-great grandchildren. One needs to ask why 2,900 people in some small town in Montana are now eligible for extra services; or why the largest lobby representing the elderly, a group already covered health wise in the US scored a Billion Dollars; or why Doctors in five states will get a higher payout for providing care to government healthcare recipients than doctors in the rest of the country; or why tanning salons need to pay an extra 10% in tax; or why those making two hundred thousand Dollars or more need to pay an additional 5% tax – the answer is simple, this is the way the US Congress works. “If you vote for this bill, I will give you….” fill in the blank. This is the way it works – and the Pork as it is called is not going to hurt the citizens only, it will also hurt those that finance these projects – meaning, the rest of the world.

Something needs to be done, but unfortunately nothing can be at this time – Democracy at its best is what we see here. As Forex investors, we should all be weary of the value of the Dollar as I can assure you; it is not going up anytime soon. The “American Dream” in which anyone can reach the pinnacle of success is dying – replaced by something less inspiring, less motivating – mediocrity. “The king is dead! Lord help us all”

As the year comes to a close we are not, in any way, more aware of how the economy will fare than we were at the same time last year.

ne could argue that the end of 2008 was ripe with total uncertainty and despair while today this does not exist, however it is my opinion that we have just become accustomed to the climate and therefore are able to manage the situation better.

Sure, the GDP’s of many countries have turned from south to north, effectively ending the recession within those locales.

But one look at the stream of mixed data, the irresponsible government spending plans, the rising unemployment and the daily barrage of credit rating devaluations paints a different picture.

In the US for example, the GDP had just been revised downward, yes it is still positive but not as robust as advertised.

The unemployment rate is above 10% after President Obama had projected 8% after spending 3 Trillion Dollars to jump start the economy and the trend for this, usually rising during the holiday season, is still negative.

In the UK, the Bank of England which was under pressure to raise interest rates and scale down their stimulus spending balked and did nothing.

In Japan, an inexperienced government decided they were the ones who were going to curb the growth of the Yen, a feat not achieved by any of the successive governments there before – today we still have a strong Yen and there are mild inflationary signs which do not bode well for the future.

What we need to do is talk honestly about what is happening – and that truth is that nobody really knows what is going on.

President Obama and the US Congress act as if they have no idea, while they speak as if they do. Take the fight to pass a sweeping health care reform; the government’s own auditors have projected that this will be a budgetary nightmare that will only serve to increase the US debt load over 10 years, a debt load that is already approaching 12 Trillion Dollars.

The idea that the spending can continue blindly is proof that the focus of the US administration is not really on growth but rather on pushing through a wish list of programs that have failed to pass for over 40 years.

England too is using the crisis as a means to legislate for policies that would have never passed before – taxing corporate bonus’ as much as 100% in some cases is a clear example of this.

Until today such a proposal would have been met with fierce opposition, however in the name of economic recovery those who object are tentative to wage such a battle.

In the coming months we will see if the recovery is real, we will see if the sovereign debt of many of the world’s leading nations is being addressed, we will see if governments are serious about promoting growth over their own agenda’s.

For today we must give them the benefit of the doubt, even though our deepest instincts tell us they are not.

Merry Christmas to all – and to all a good night.