Archive for January, 2010

Has Obama missed the point again?

Since being sworn into office, a little over a year ago, President Obama has not ceased to shock the world, with all of his proposed “Changes” for the United States. His latest speech, on his plan to limit risk-trading by U.S banks was no different.

Over a week ago, President Obama shared with the world his most recent vision of government intervention in the United States.

For those of you who did not hear, he proposed a plan to limit risk-trading by U.S banks, by limiting the size of the banks and the share of the funding that can come from non-deposit source, while also declaring that commercial banking and proprietary trading activities would be segregated in the future.

The proposal would be part of a series of regulations preventing banks from property trading as well as investing in hedge funds. And like all of Mr. Obama’s speeches, people stopped, listened and like all of his controversial plans, the public suffered from mixed reactions.

While, it could be perceived that these reforms could potentially set the United States on the right track by preventing a future financial crisis similar to the one occurring now; Mr. Obama’s plan for financial reforms, could also be interpreted as a desperate and frantic attempt to appeal popular anti Wall Street sentiments.

With unemployment numbers in the US skyrocketing to 10%, the president is looking for a scapegoat. The banks are an ideal target, as it is never considered bad politics to blame the banks. New regulations for the banks are intended to prevent a future financial crisis like the one experienced this past year.

This of course presupposes that was entirely the fault of the banks to begin with and that they deserve to be punished. The banks took public money- they accepted a bailout and then managed to have one of their most profitable years.

For Obama this is unconscionable - and so, even though much of the money has been paid back the government has decided that since they bailed the banks out they are entitled to now interfere in their business.

The outcome of this regulatory activity may not have the result the president desires. Will it prevent future financial crises is a question but what is clearer is the uncertainty even the announcement of this proposal has already created. If there is one thing the financial markets, both Forex and Equity alike, hate it is uncertainty. The immediate result of the announcement was a dramatic sell off in equity markets all over the world.

With Obama only one year into his first term, and little of his “Changes” doing good, if any at all, America and the world, are  left wondering if the president can pull it together and actually help his country recover from one of the worst financial recessions. So far there is little hope, especially when President Obama continues to demonstrate his limited understanding of how the financial market operates, as well as why we are currently in a recession.  We are left wondering, has Obama missed the point again?

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What is a Margin Account?

To understand what a margin account is, you should focus on the word “margin”. In finance, margin refers to an arrangement that enables you to borrow money from your broker to fund your investment.

That is one way to look at it. In general though, a margin account provides flexible trading with your broker. This means that you can immediately buy shares that you normally could not afford. A margin account is therefore an investment account with total shares that cost more than your actual investment.

The benefits of a margin account - One obvious benefit of a margin account is the provision of being able to buy more shares. This is because you can easily borrow money from your brokerage with the margin account.  The margin account also beats a regular account in terms of the settling period of a day trade. You need to wait three days to spend the money you earn from a sale.

With the margin account, there is no such settling period. Also, because it is easy for you to borrow money from your broker, you can use that money to invest in shares that are selling for low prices. You can eventually sell those shares at higher prices.

The problem with a margin account - Even if a margin account has many benefits, it does not come without a disadvantage. Be careful about your investments or you could end up losing more than the cash you have shelled out.

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Reality check: There is no transparency here

The US Job situation is, as I predicted, dismal. As analysts touted the ADP numbers and the initial unemployment filings on Wednesday and Thursday, respectfully, few predicted that the non-farm payroll which came out earlier today would be so bad.

As the US administration reveled in the numbers earlier this week, even sparking a mention from President Obama on how things are looking up, the public was getting another whitewash from their government – a government that ran for office on the platform of transparency, a government that has been clouded by secrecy and misdirection since their inauguration.

Despite the 85,000 jobs lost in December, a number that surprised most professionals, the US was at it again attempting to defuse the poor showing by claiming a mini-victory meant to smokescreen the truth.

According to the Labor Department, the November payroll data, which had originally showed an 11,000 job drop was revised to show a 4,000 job gain. Still, with the December data the US lost about 1,000 more jobs than anyone had expected.

To me, the shock is not in the numbers as if you have been a loyal reader you would know my beliefs. What surprised me about this report was what the government did not tell you – with regard to both the November revision as well as the December data.

According to the data the US is now standing at a 10.1% unemployment rate and it seems as if the trend is actually worse. What I mean by “it seems” is actually a criticism of how the US calculates the unemployed.

Since the recession began, over 7 million Americans have lost their jobs and were receiving unemployment benefits.

However, according to US reporting standards, if an unemployed person takes on a part-time or even a per-diem job, one that is obviously not replacing their lost wages rather just supplementing their unemployment insurance income, the US no longer classifies them as unemployed – even though they are still seeking a full-time position.

To put this in context, if you were looking for work for 8 months and took a job as a part-time Santa Claus in a mall making minimum wage for the two weeks leading up to Christmas, you are not considered unemployed anymore even though you are now, after the New Year, once again looking for work.

I have written about this farce several times and it never ceases to amaze me how the government still gets away with it – and more so, how the trading public still believes it.

But again, this is not even the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the snow-job the US administration is doing, it gets worse.

 There is a classification of people called “under-employed” which relates to my example above with the exception that their work is more stable just not adequate enough to sustain their daily lives.

Picture a mechanical engineer who was making a decent living, paying his mortgage and school tuition and taxes on time suddenly losing his job.

After months of searching for a position in his area of expertise, he chooses to go to work anywhere, just so that he can bring in money.

He gets a job at McDonald’s as a manager, making less than one quarter of what he was before his layoff – he no longer can afford his mortgage or the tuition and rising taxes that are based on his previous years income are eating a huge hole into his meager salary.

This man is classified as “underemployed” which is not counted in these numbers – yet whose effect on society is, to a degree, more damaging.

There is also a new phenomenon of unemployed workers who just give up looking for work – effectively making them ineligible for insurance and therefore not counted among the numbers the Labor Department releases.

According to the most conservative of estimates, the number of these individuals, if counted in the overall data, would bring the US closer to a 10.4% rate which matches the highest level it has been since 1983.

Others estimate the number to be more significant, speculating that the rate is actually closer to 11% - but I will be kind and use the smallest that I could find as it is just as astonishing.

The policies of the US Administration are becoming increasingly unpopular and the citizenry that elected a man and his team on a promise of change and accountability has become more disillusioned.

The fight over Health Care reform which was, in Obama’s words, supposed to be “televised on C-SPAN” has been done in a closed door sessions with only the majority party present; the recent terror scare and fatal terror shootings on US soil has highlighted the Administrations laissez faire attitude towards the security precautions that they so criticized the previous administration for; and the withholding of crucial data that could paint a more realistic picture on the economic growth of the country has further tarnished the standing of the US in a world that was hoping for more leadership.

This is not the way to run a government of the people, by the people and for the people.

 The path the US is on is a throwback to the age of gas rationing, food pantry lines and the over-regulation of daily existence that was common on the streets of Moscow in the 1950’s.

I am not trying to be an alarmist – I ask you all to look at the situation yourself – investigate the information I write, the internet is a great resource tool for this – and come to your own conclusions.

As for me, thinking of the Forex market, I will not be placing my future or that of my children in the US Dollar anytime soon. I hope there will come a time when “it’s all about the Benjamins” means something again – but Ben Franklin is looking more like Carl Marx at this stage and I know something will have to give soon; whatever it is, it will not be pretty.

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