As the year comes to a close we are not, in any way, more aware of how the economy will fare than we were at the same time last year.

ne could argue that the end of 2008 was ripe with total uncertainty and despair while today this does not exist, however it is my opinion that we have just become accustomed to the climate and therefore are able to manage the situation better.

Sure, the GDP’s of many countries have turned from south to north, effectively ending the recession within those locales.

But one look at the stream of mixed data, the irresponsible government spending plans, the rising unemployment and the daily barrage of credit rating devaluations paints a different picture.

In the US for example, the GDP had just been revised downward, yes it is still positive but not as robust as advertised.

The unemployment rate is above 10% after President Obama had projected 8% after spending 3 Trillion Dollars to jump start the economy and the trend for this, usually rising during the holiday season, is still negative.

In the UK, the Bank of England which was under pressure to raise interest rates and scale down their stimulus spending balked and did nothing.

In Japan, an inexperienced government decided they were the ones who were going to curb the growth of the Yen, a feat not achieved by any of the successive governments there before – today we still have a strong Yen and there are mild inflationary signs which do not bode well for the future.

What we need to do is talk honestly about what is happening – and that truth is that nobody really knows what is going on.

President Obama and the US Congress act as if they have no idea, while they speak as if they do. Take the fight to pass a sweeping health care reform; the government’s own auditors have projected that this will be a budgetary nightmare that will only serve to increase the US debt load over 10 years, a debt load that is already approaching 12 Trillion Dollars.

The idea that the spending can continue blindly is proof that the focus of the US administration is not really on growth but rather on pushing through a wish list of programs that have failed to pass for over 40 years.

England too is using the crisis as a means to legislate for policies that would have never passed before – taxing corporate bonus’ as much as 100% in some cases is a clear example of this.

Until today such a proposal would have been met with fierce opposition, however in the name of economic recovery those who object are tentative to wage such a battle.

In the coming months we will see if the recovery is real, we will see if the sovereign debt of many of the world’s leading nations is being addressed, we will see if governments are serious about promoting growth over their own agenda’s.

For today we must give them the benefit of the doubt, even though our deepest instincts tell us they are not.

Merry Christmas to all – and to all a good night.