German Chancellor Angela Merkel steered Berlin on a crash course with fellow Euro Zone members, on Wednesday, calling for certain “troublesome” members to be expelled from the single currency bloc. Mrs. Merkel warned that EU parliament that Europe needs “a treaty framework in which it would even be possible as a last resort to exclude a country from the Euro if it again and again breaks the conditions over the long-term.”
Her harsh remarks come after certain Euro Zone members’, namely Greece, mountain debt crisis have panicked forex investors, causing the Euro to lose over 5% of its value this year against the Greenback.
Mrs. Merkel told the parliament that “We are thinking for the future” and about how to improve rules for the 16-nation Euro Zone. That includes considering “an agreement for the future in which it is even possible as a last resort to exclude a country from the Euro Zone if, in the long term, it again and again fails to fulfill the conditions”, otherwise, according to Merkel “we can’t work together.” While observers quickly dismissed the Chancellor’s proposal as political theater, aimed a shifting the debate away from the debt crisis, forex investors are forced to question, is Germany actually serious in its quest to expel its rule breaking members.
Countries, such as Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Italy (collectively referred to as the PIIGS), have been milking the benefits of the single currency and monetary policy for years, without any real regard to the consequence of their actions and mounting fiscal debt. Since the creation of the Euro Zone Germany has stood as the strongest member of the 16-currency bloc, providing the majority on the union’s economic support. And such its annoyance with the Greek problem is understandable as if the Euro Zone end of providing loan guaranties other assistance to Greece, the bulk of it would be paid for by Germany. However, this type of change that the German leader outlined would require the unanimous approval of the 27 European members, including those with the worst fiscal track records- in other words those whose heads rest on the chopping block.
Merkel called the Greek crisis, where a budget deficit above 12% of GDP has prompted fears about the government’s ability to pay its debts and the currency bloc’s power to stabilize a struggling member, “the greatest challenge yet to face the Euro” and said it exposed a need for broad new regulations. While she absolutely right that if the Euro Zone wants to survive it needs stricter rules of financial governance, she has gone too far by putting the option of “expulsion” on the table. Besides Greece is not the only country that faces a huge budget deficit, and it is certainly not the only State to break the EU’s allowed budget deficit equivalent to 3% of GDP. Even Germany, regarded as a hawk on budget stringency, has forecasted that its budget deficit will expand to 5.5% of GDP, from 3.2% in 2009- essentially also “breaking the rules”. And this number could turn out to be higher as according to the EU commission, Germany based this forecast on “slightly favorable” economic projections. And hypothetically if this law were too pass, who would decide which country’s get kicked out and which get to stay? How can you give such a power to certain countries, and not others?
Let’s say Germany would get its wish and Greece would be expelled — never mind that the European Central Bank says expulsion is inconceivably impossible and even a voluntary exit is unimaginably complex — Greece would almost certainly default on those bonds. This would lead to unimaginable consequences for German investors, as Deutsche Bank CEO Josef Akcermann reminded audiences yesterday that German claim on Greek debt is worth something like $43 billion. German lenders would get new gaping holes in their balance sheets, in addition to an immediate reduction in the value of the $689 billion of debt they hold in bonds from Spain, Italy, Ireland and Portugal. Beyond that, there’s also the massive benefit the euro has given Germany. Basically, German exporters have locked in competitive advantages vs. 15 other nations that they would not otherwise enjoy if the Italian lira, Greek drachma and Spanish peseta were still around to depreciate.
From its creation, the Euro was driven as much by politics as economics. The single currency founding fathers were inspired by the belief that Europe’s destiny, and strength, lay in a closer economic union. A single currency and monetary policy was the foundation for this belief. So figures were reworked and massaged to enable countries to join. When nations broke the economic regulations in the past, it was overlooked- everyone remain a member of the “club”. But that was back when there was confidence in the Euro, and hence the state of Greece’s or other EU country’s economies had not real impact on Germany. Now that the single currency is spiraling downwards, and the fate of the EU lies on the edge of the edge of the unknown, suddenly Germany does not wish to be associated with these countries anymore. Twelve years ago Germany needed these country’s to create the EU’s political and economic union- it needed these country’s to create a union that would be large and strong enough to rival the Unites State’s economy. But now that these country’s have are hampering this vision, Germany is willing to simply expel them? Does that really seem fair?
The Euro Zone is in a very tough bind, and Germany and even greater one. But instead of wasting time proposing plans that will never pass, and would create more damage than good, the EU leaders should come up with a plan that would solve their disastrous situation, in the near term and the long term, sooner rather than later. Investors (forex) typically have little patience for uncertainty- the longer the 16-currency bloc waits, the faster the Euro will sink.
